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WorldWide Markets Trading Blog

Weekly Market Snapshot - September 24, 2016: Forex, Equities, Commodities

September 24, 2016 - (Weekly) FX Strength, Pivot points, Support, Resistance & Fibonacci retracement levels for Currency pairs, Dollar Index, Global Stock Indices & Commodities offered by WorldWideMarkets and Chart(s) of Interest. [US Dollar Index, AUDUSD, NZDUSD{updated end of week}

  • Performance
FX Weekly Performance (Strongest to Weakest)
Strongest Weakest
Market Best - Last Week Worst - Last Week Best - Last 2 Weeks Worst - Last 2 Weeks
Equity Germany India USA - Nasdaq Japan
Commodity Silver Heating Oil Natural Gas US Crude Oil (WTI)

Crude Falls Sharply after Production Accord Dies

Crude oil prices dropped sharply in early afternoon trading after the Russian Finance Minister told CNBC that a production freeze by Saudi Arabia might not be enough to boost prices and the Saudis themselves were said to dismiss the prospect  for a price agreement at next week’s OPEC meeting.

US FX Market Open – Friday, September 23, 2016: Consolidation after a volatile week


Overnight Events

• DXY +0.05%, DAX -0.15%, Brent +0.17%, Iron +1.0%
• USD/JPY+0.16%, EUR/USD +0.05%, GBP/USD -0.55%
• Saudi made oil output proposal to Iran ahead of OPEC meet Rtrs
• Riksbank’s Ohlsson-more important question if to continue asset buys
• FT website-Whitehall and BoE believe Carney will serve full term to 2021
• ECB’s Constancio- monetary policy has leeway but it’s not infinite Rtrs
• FR Final Q2 GDP -0.1% vs +0.6% prev, 0.0% exp
• DE Sept flash Mfg PMI 54.3 vs 53.6 prev, 53.1 exp
• DE Sept flash Service PMI 50.6 vs 51.7 prev, 52.1 exp
• EZ Sept flash Mfg PMI 52.6 vs 51.7 prev, 51.5 exp
• EZ Sept flash Service PMI 52.1 vs 52.8 prev, 52.8 exp
• Nikkei Sept Flash MFG PMI 50.3 vs 49.5 in August
• Japan Sept flash mfg PMI shows expansion for 1st time in 7 mths
• OPEC in new push to clinch first deal to curb output since 2008 – Rtrs

Currency Summaries

• EUR/USD a non-mover once again, just 1.1195-1.1219 in Europe
• Pair held close to 1.1200, likely thanks to big option expiries
• Hedging for EUR 2.2bln 1.1200 vanilla option expiries dominant
• Data largely ignored. French Q2 GDP revised to -0.1% qq from 0.0%
• EZ composite PMI dips to 52.6 in Sep from 52.9 in Aug

• USD/JPY trades a fairly limited range of 100.70-101.25
• Upside heavy, Japanese exporters have offers in size
• Bias remains on downside, but 100.00 turning out to be a big level
• Market short gamma sub 100.00
• Corporate names had bids at 110.10 on Thu
• JPY 1mth atm continues post BoJ slide, hits 9.7

• EUR/CHF snaps a three day slide: Recovers from 1.0855 low
• SNB support bids low 1.08s left behind
• Technically regains ground back above daily cloud
• Holding recovery high into NY- Plays 1.0855-1.0883
• USD/CHF also recovers but capped by the daily cloud at 0.9717
• Spot plays 0.9687-0.9713
• Chart 1) http://reut.rs/2cLyfbD  2) http://reut.rs/2cQiweD

• GBP/USD fell to a European am low of 1.2988 amid ongoing Brexit concerns
• Boris Johnson said Britain may trigger EU divorce early next year
• 1.3033-1.3088 was Asia range. 1.3121 was Thursday’s six-day high
• EUR/GBP has risen to threaten 0.8631 amid ongoing Brexit concerns
• 0.8631 was Tuesday’s 4wk peak. 0.8632 = 76.4% of 0.8724-0.8334

• USD/CAD has fallen to a low of 1.3032 on higher oil courtesy of Saudi offer
• Sources say Saudis offer oil cut for OPEC deal if Iran freezes output
• WTI $46.45/barrel at 6.25am ET, a buck above European am low
• 1.3090 was European am high, before Saudi news re-inflated oil

• AUD/USD elicited support pre-0.76 after falling from 0.7653 on decline in risk appetite
• 0.7609 = European am low. 0.7653 was early Europe high. 0.7650 option expiry today
• AUD/NZD has extended north to a fresh 1mth high of 1.0525
• 1.0501 was Asia high. 1.0375 was Wednesday high, pre-RBNZ jawboning on NZD

• NZD/USD based a pip shy of 0.7241 after breaking below 0.7270 (Asia low)
• 0.7241 = Sept 15 low. More AUD/NZD gains during European am (see above)

Today’s events

An expiring FX option heading into the New York Cut, if close enough to the strike price, can act as a magnet for selling/buying.  If the option is large, it can generate enough trading to move the market.  

Option Expirations(Source:ThompsonReuters)

• EUR/USD: 1.1100 (2B), 1.1150-60 (785M), 1.1175-80 (1.06B), 1.1200 (2.2B)
• EUR/USD: 1.1250 (1.96B). GBP/USD: 1.3045/50 (385M)
• USD/JPY: 98.00 (575M), 99.99-100.00 (842M), 101.00 (960M), 103.00 (1.42B)
• USD/CHF: 0.9650 (530M), 0.9850 (350M). EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (301M)
• USD/CAD: 1.3000-10 (598M), 1.3050 (431M), 1.3150 (463M), 1.3250 (361M)
• AUD/USD: 0.7650 (299M). NZD/USD: 0.7350 (200M). AUD/JPY: 0.7700 (331M)

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT) - (Source:ThompsonReuters)

• 12:30 CA Aug CPI mkt 1.4% y.y, 1.3% prev
• 12:30 CA Aug BoC Core mkt 2.0% y/y, 2.1% prev
• 12:30 CA Jul R.Sales mkt 0.1%, -0.1% prev
• 13:45 Markit Mfg PMI flash Sep mkt 51.9, prev 52.1
• 14:00 Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Sep
• 15:15 New York Fed GDP Nowcast Q3 (prev 2.8% q/q
• 17:00 Baker-Hughes Rig Count prev 416

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT) - (Source:ThompsonReuters)

• 13:45 FedTrade ops 30-year Ginnie Mae max $1.550 bln
• 16:00 FRB Harker (voter 2017), Lockhart, Cleveland's Mester  panel discussion



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