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WorldWide Markets Trading Blog

CFD: Ideas You Can Trade - USOil Turned Very Bearish Today

USOil: Trend turned bearish very fast after 58.00 lost and with steep dive to 53.00 today. Trajectory points towards 40.00 in short term.

The medium term daily candle chart below shows the price history of USOil - a Contract for Difference (CFD) that aims to track the underlying spot price of US Crude Oil. This CFD is trading near 53.24 around time of publication - after falling from 58.00 within the last 24 hours. 

USOil was last reviewed at the end of June in Ideas You Can Trade  when support was tested again -and the trend was described as range-bound and with a break-below that being very bearish. 

Yesterday ahead of the market open USOil lost support on 58.00 and has dove steeply towards current prices and seems within a steep bearish channel, and signaling an overall change of the trend into a more bearish trajectory. On the additional weekly chart below the 2015 lows just above 40.00 seem within close reach at this pace.

While a lower low seem more likely now, a small recovery could preceded such a continuation, yet the overall momentum should stay bearish - considering the size of the drop - unless 58.00 is regained very quickly (which seems unlikely).

Below are examples of how to trade a bearish continuation or a bullish reversal:

1.  BULLISH BUY ENTRY ORDER: Create a “Buy Entry Stop” @ 55.60 with a Limit to take profit @ 56.00 and a stop-loss @ 55.20 Risk/Reward Summary: Limit risk = +0.40 points profit /(-0.40) Stop-loss risk = Gain to Loss ratio = 1.0

2.  BEARISH SELL ENTRY ORDER: Create a “Sell Entry Stop” @ 52.99 with a Limit to take profit @ 51.85 and a stop-loss @ 53.99 Risk/Reward Summary:  Limit risk = +1.14 points profit /(-1.00) Stop-loss risk = Gain to Loss Ratio =  1.14

Daily Candle Chart:

USOilDaily July 6 2015 note

Weekly Candle Chart:

USOilWeekly July 6 2015 note

U.S. Service Industries Expand Modestly in June

Growth in U.S. service industries maintained its moderate pace in June but the immediate direction of this economically dominant sector was in doubt as improvement in one major survey contrasted with accelerating weakness in another. 

The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index rose slightly to 56.0 from 55.7 in May, which had been the lowest reading in 13 months.

However, the purchasing managers’ index from Markit Economics fell to 54.8 in June from 56.2 the prior month. The index has now dropped for three months in a row since the year's high in March at 59.2 and is at the lowest point since January.  

Both survey missed forecasts, ISM at 56.4 and Markit at 54.9. The Institute is U.S. based, with headquarters in Tempe Arizona while Markit is a U.K. firm based in London.  The methodology of the two surreys is similar, a reading above 50 indicate expansion. 

Job creation in the U.S. slipped to a three month low according to Markit, a conclusion mirrored in the ISM where its employment sub-index fell to a five month low at 52.7. 

The divergence in the results of the two services surveys duplicates a similar result in their manufacturing surveys which were released last week.

As in today's services information, the factory indexes were close in June, 53.5 for ISM and 53.6 for Markit.

But Markit had arrived at that point by declining for three straight months from 55.7 in March to 53.6 in June and the ISM by rising for two months from 51.5 in March and April.

In today's ISM survey new orders rose to 58.3 in June from 57.9 the previous month, as did business activity, up to 61.5 from 59.5 and backorders to 50.5 from 48.5.  Export and imports orders declined. Overseas business slipped to 52.0 in June from 55.0 while imports fell into contraction at 48.0 from 53.5 in May. Prices dropped to 53.0 in June from 55.9 in May. 

 

Joseph Trevisani

Chief Market Strategist

WorldWideMarkets Online Trading

Charts: Bloomberg

Services: ISM-white; Markit-yellow

services july 6

Manufacturing: ISM

pmi mfg july 1

 
 
 

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