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The Forex Daily Digest – July 8, 2009

Earnings season in the U.S. now has the attention of equity investors. The next earnings season gets underway today when Alcoa (AA) reports its earnings figures for the most recent quarter after the closing bell on Wall Street. But this time around, the Foreign Exchange may also have a large impact as to how these earnings look. The fall in the USD was blamed for helping the increase in energy prices, but it will also likely play a role for some companies, providing stock investors with a little positive news for a change.

Throughout the last quarter, the USD dropped about 6 percent against a basket of six currencies, reversing a five percent gain for the dollar index in the January through March quarter of this year. One Forex analyst said that companies that were impaired financially by the dollar's strength in the first quarter should more than likely profit from the dollar's weakness in the second quarter. The dollar is still stronger than it was just a year ago but because of a USD drop that began in early March, companies' revenues probably felt less of an effect from currency exchanges.

The Group of Eight (G8) industrialized countries and emerging economies are predicting to call for reform of the global financial system when they meet in Italy starting today. Both the U-S and the European Union (EU) have agreed to a bold package in an attempt to strengthen financial regulation. President Obama, attending his first G8 summit, is hoping that the attendees, who include major economies that produce about 80 percent of the world’s carbon emissions, will sign a pledge to prevent world temperatures increasing by more than two degrees Celsius, which is the maximum thought permissible before climate change becomes irreversible.

The major currencies seem to be in a mood for consolidation ahead of the G8 meeting. It has been a good week for the JPY. The USD fell to a five-week low against the JPY as fallout from last week's grim U.S. Non-Farm payrolls data scared investors who were insisting the world economy was improving. Now they aren’t so sure. The market’s mood generally remains cautious while the world waits to see what the G8 leaders decide in Italy.

Economic reports on the today’s calendar include the Crude Oil Inventory report and the Consumer Credit report for May, which will be released at 3:00 pm (Eastern Time). Last month the Credit report came in at a negative $15.7 billion. The street is expecting a negative $8.8 billion.

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Happy Trading,

James Dicks

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