JDFN Financial Network

Technical Analysis 24-11-2010 – 5 MAJORS and GOLD

The following previsions for 5 majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD) and Gold, are based on Daily charts.

EURUSD = BEARISH (R:R = 1:3)

RES2 = 1.4283

RES1 = 1.3919
SUP1 = 1.3392
SUP2 = 1.2524

This pair has done a good continuation of its bearish movement, validating a downside break of 1.3500 and 1.3400 supports and is now testing next support level at 1.3300. All the indicators are showing a bearish direction. We would favor trading only short positions while the pair holds below 1.3500. There is however a strong area of support below 1.3300 at 1.3280, thus a possibility of going back up to retest 1.3500 as a resistance remains.

GBPUSD = BEARISH (R:R = 1:3)
RES2 = 1.6301
RES1 = 1.6151
SUP1 = 1.5806
SUP2 = 1.4951
GBP/USD has continued its bearish move and the break of 1.5854 has given a new signal for shorting the pair. We have a support at 1.5762. We would be favoring trading only short positions as long as the resistance at 1.5854 holds. If we break 1.5762 we would be having a new selling signal. On the other hand, if prices go back above 1.5854, our overview for this pair will be neutral.

USDCHF = BULLISH WITH CAUTION (with a better R:R on BEARISH = 1:3)
RES2 = 1.0678
RES1 = 1.0070
SUP1 = 0.9660
SUP2 = 0.9465
 The Swissie has been well supported on its rising trendline and went back above 0.9908, which allows us to trade long positions again. We will be favoring only long positions as long as 0.9908 holds as support. A break of the parity at 1.0000 would give us a new buying signal. On the other hand, should the pair fall back down the bearish trendline at around 0.9700, we would be selling short.


USDJPY = BEARISH (R:R = 1:2.42)
RES2 = 89.17
RES1 = 84.59
SUP1 = 81.34
SUP2 = 80.35
 The Dollar/Yen has broken its rising trendline where it is now finding resistance. We would favor trading against this line: long positions above, a break of would be giving us a new buying signal. Short positions below the line: if prices go back below 83.09 this would indicate a continuation of the move and a break of 82.78 would be the signal to sell again this pair.


AUDUSD = BULLISH (R:R = 1:2.44)
RES2 = 1.0185
RES1 = 1.0134
SUP1 = 0.9685
SUP2 = 0.8452
The Aussie has just found support just above 0.9700 and is going back to retest 0.9800 as a resistance. All the indicators are bearish, however we maintain an overall bullish view because of the carry value of this pair. Staircase strategy applied to the daily charts would give an expectation for a fall to the next rising trend line and 38% Fibonacci retracement from the long rise, at around 0.9386. 0.9800 is the key price for this pair, so as long as prices hold below this level we would be favoring only short positions and a new selling signal if 0.9700 support is broken. Should the rates come back above 0.9800 we would be taking only long positions and a new buying signal will be given if there is a break to the upside at 0.9900 level.
GOLD = CONSOLIDATION (FLAT R:R)
RES2 = 1424.83
RES1 = 1417.88
SUP1 = 1323.10
SUP2 = 1157.35
XAU/USD is presently testing 1380.00 as a resistance. All the indicators are bullish again, however we will maintain neutrality on this pair as long as the rate remains between 1360.00 and 1380.00. It seems to be on for some consolidation period. We would be taking longs if prices break up above 1380.00, with a new buying signal after a break of 1400.00; if prices break below 1360.00 we will go short, with a new selling signal after a break of 1345.00.




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