CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Update - Jan.14 close

USDCAD

The Loonie closed last Friday after a strong rejection from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on previous swing low on daily charts and has been trading on a tight range today. We are at the bottom line of a descending wedge on weekly time frame, where a bounce back to SMA100, SMA200 and the previous highs could be expected though present indecision in direction makes me wonder if there won’t be a further fall in extension towards 0.9750/20 before attempting a break and retest of levels above parity. Daily trend looks strongly bearish and a break of the descending daily channel would lead us below 0.9650 as a second target.

AUDUSD

The Aussie still looks bullish despite the double-toppish appearance on weekly and daily charts. We have seen today a strong pull back up on 4 hour charts forming a bullish flag, and weekly close shows a potential reversal candle pattern though 0.9900 level has to be watched closely as its break down could give way to a bigger fall towards 0.9420/00 on a longer term view. First target to the upside is, again, parity and previous highs in a second step, however should the pair reach those levels we will have to watch closely for a triple top or head and shoulders formation.

XAUUSD (GOLD)

The “crown” pattern and triple top formation definitely shows a bearish outlook for the short term on this pair. Price closed last week at the middle line of the Bollinger Band and on a longer term view I would expect a further fall to retest the lows at around 1160.00. My views for Gold are biased towards a retracement to the 50% weekly Fibonacci level and SMA34 at 1300.00/1290.00 with a second target to retest previously broken resistance which is now offering support at 1260.00.