EUR/USD

Comment

Comment by Adam Horak on October 21, 2009 at 11:00am

We are now testing new highs for the year on the EUR/USD the dollar with the market sentiment more focused on comments out of the MPC and the rally surrounding the GBP along with continued concerns over US inflation. The EUR/USD is being dragged higher by moves from its European cousin the GBP.

Comment by Philip Amadi on July 29, 2009 at 10:52am

I would like to join this group.

Comment by Dr Chris on June 24, 2009 at 11:32pm

We sure need to get this discussion group going again.
alot of money to be made on this pair. I love this pair...I also love root canals..

DrChris

Comment by Adam Horak on October 8, 2008 at 12:45pm

i am amazed how the ATR on the the EUR/USD has gone from 140 to 240 in only the past couple months...

Comment by Adam Horak on August 27, 2008 at 9:40am

The greenback may have a hard time gaining ground as oil prices head higher, using technical set up I entered the position at 1.4600 stop at 1.4670 profit targets at 1.4720 then 1.4790. This strategy uses fundamentals to find direction, technical to enter and exit the trade and money management to limit risk and ensure appropriate risk to reward ratios.

Comment by Adam Horak on August 27, 2008 at 9:39am

Comment by Frederick Lambert on August 18, 2008 at 4:22am

Why not a chat room instead? Or at least in addition to these messages.....which seem not to be catching on based on the inactivity I see. I believe a chat room....one for each pair.....would bring more people together, would create more activity....activity to benefit all. Is a chat room doable here?

Comment by Adam Horak on July 31, 2008 at 5:02pm

Comment by Adam Horak on July 31, 2008 at 4:50pm

I am continuing to watch the EUR/USD short position that was entered into off the top of the linier channel following the trend. I am still looking for the EUR/USD to test the support level around 1.5400 see the attached chart to follow the channel.

Comment by Adam Horak on July 22, 2008 at 2:50pm

The 30-40 trading plan you’re referring to is for range bound markets and news trading...
It was used at the time it was created by many traders to trade the EUR/USD because of its 30-40 pip intra day channel.
A broader base for using this plan would be to build knowledge of volume/volatility levels as price targets are hit on shorter time frames.
Look to trade between levels of support and resistance that are respected areas during any period of time.
trading at the high and low of an upward moving price channel with an upward trend using a linear regression channel you look to trade off the low points of the channel. In a downward trending linear channel you look to trade off the high points of the channel
when markets form price channels or range bound channels you look to trade between levels of support and resistance, formation of price channels will show clearly defended upside price movement that have a tendency to snap back after reaching a resistance level then reverse to a clearly defended level of support before snapping back to resistance. You may see in a sideways or range bound market increases in volatility at the support and resistance points. Another indication is a decreasing ATR Average True Range, A decreasing ATR confirms a sideways market.
Price movement and subsequent Trends for the Day are due to one of four main reasons:
1 Fundamental News for the region. Most days bring an economic release of one kind or another that affects that Forex pair and provides for us a direction to trade. If we can tie that up with the current position of our Channel and we have room to move in that direction we can be comfortable that our trade will follow through.
2) As we reach the Support or Resistance levels that form our Channel we can look for the reaction that those price areas bring, we saw earlier that it is important to confirm our trades with increasing volume.
3) Global news has an effect on Market sentiment and can instigate the price movement that we are looking for.
4) Gold and Oil are priced Internationally in US $’s. As Gold moves up the US$ tends to move down and vice versa. The price of Oil is relevant but has more bearing on the Equity Markets than the Forex.
Pivot Points work very well in Trending Markets. At the end of each trading session the calculations are made and Pivot Points are provided that are set for the whole of the next day.
The Black Pivot Point line is deemed to be the Neutral Area that tends to have an equal numbers of Buy and Sell orders.
As we trend sideway we tend to gravitate towards the Pivot Point until such time as Volume increases and confirms an intra day price move.
In this example we can see the black Pivot Point, that was set at the beginning of the previous session creating a perfect breakout confirmation signal to time our trade off.
looking at the intra day channel trade follow the trend we are looking to trade, target the area that is most likely to get hit during the entry time you used to place your trade, (if you used a 15 min chart to enter your position look to see where the most likely target will be during the next 15 minutes) enter off increasing volatility.
Confirming the trend of the moment allowed you to react to the increases in volatility following the price move from one channel to another by putting the whole plan together.
You will be able to trade the momentum of the move either range trade or news releases not the moment the new is released. Make sure that your trade is inline with your trend, if not wait for further confirmation that the trend is changing. The same concept that we used to trade a Channeling Market can be used to trade the News Release times. We define beforehand the strong areas that we are likely to trade towards if the Release comes out as expected. A Release that comes out completely against the Trend needs to be avoided as any price moves are likely to be reversed very quickly.
Confirming beforehand the direction of the Trend allows us to let the news come out, the reaction to be absorbed into the Market and then for us to trade off the subsequent momentum that will move our price.
resist the temptation to jump into a position, wait for your numbers to get hit, ride the momentum on the second run, confirm you are seeing buying and selling pressure in your direction, don’t be afraid to let your winning trades run in the event the it breaks resistance or support in your favor, if it comes back all you have missed is a head fake.
Remember the initial news release may not be strong enough to get us through our second level of resistance so we have to wait for the pull back and look for a secondary push to gain enough momentum to increase the volatility levels, once we hit our price target we start the analysis over again.
Remember trading the news can be profitable as long as you define a trend beforehand and ignore the releases that are against the trend.
Always check the global markets, know the economic what economic releases are due, confirm support and resistance areas, use your tools to confirm your trade, only trade the set ups as part of the overall trend, be prepared.

hope this helps. if you have any questions let me know. ill be happy to cover it on my show in the morning. 7-8 EDT